Light at the End of the Tunnel Early Friday afternoon, we finally got news that Congress had reached a conclusion to temporarily reopen and fund the government for three weeks, and the bill was signed by President Trump late Friday night. Once the government opens, both parties are expected set up a conference committee to propose an appropriations bill for Homeland Security. Of course, the President has threatened to shut down the government again if he doesn’t get funding for his wall (or just declare a national emergency and build the wall without Congressional approval). Time will tell whether legislators can find a productive resolution, which could also include a potential…

Trade Charade On Thursday, we got news that US officials were thinking about easing some of the tariffs against China, which sent stocks higher. Then later that day, the White House came out and said loljk that’s not actually happening now, which brought stocks down again. But then China extended an olive branch on Friday by offering to increase its purchases of US goods by more than $1 trillion over six years with the goal of reducing the annual US trade deficit to zero, which sent stocks soaring again on Friday. This might go down as the most “on again, off again” relationship story of 2019, brb let me grab my bowl of popcorn…

Retail Me Not Macy’s was definitely not giving thanks for their parade to the bottom of the board this week, falling 17.7% on Thursday after they reduced their guidance for sales and earnings after upgrading it only two months ago. The catalyst? Consumers had put up the best holiday sales numbers in six years at the beginning of the holiday season (Black Friday), but then basically just stopped shopping until Christmas so retail sales were really weak in December. Numbers from Target and Costco were a little more promising but the headline news about Macy’s brought down stocks across the entire retail sector – Kohl’s, L Brands, and Nordstrom were among…

Shutdown showdown The government shutdown has been going on for two weeks and counting. The crux of the issue? $5B to build a border wall. The irony? The economic costs of this shutdown have probably already exceeded $5B because of Wages being paid to federal workers who aren’t working (I’ve heard this is every millennial’s dream – get paid to do nothing, is that true??) Lost revenue the government can’t collect from foregone services like permits and fees The costs to the broader economy from this disruption The government shutdown in 2013, which lasted 16 days, lowered quarterly GDP by 0.2%-0.6% ($2B-$6B). GDP is impacted by both consumer spending and…