• Economic Indicators Playing Games

    Duck  The US manufacturing sector continues to contract as the ISM manufacturing index came in at 48.1 in November, down 20bps from last month. A reading below 50 is indicative of a contractionary environment, and this marks the fourth straight month of contraction. More concerning is the composition of the index as new orders fell to the lowest level since April 2009. The services side of the economy isn’t doing much better as the ISM non-manufacturing index fell again in November to 53.9, which is only slightly in positive territory.  Moral of the story: Honestly, the manufacturing sector is effectively already in a recession right now. The services sector isn’t…

  • Democracy FTW

    Coming back from the depths  Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-2008, the housing market has been clawing itself out of a deep, deep hole given housing was the crux of the issue. But thanks to lower interest rates and an aging generation of “millennials” who need space for their growing families, October marked the third month in a row when the annual pace of single-family home sales was higher than 700k – the last time this happened was 2007.  Moral of the story: We’ve been seeing an increase in homeownership rates recently due to lower interest rates and an increase in home purchases would definitely help boost GDP as we head into 2020,…