Look out below Consumer prices increased 1.8% for the twelve months ending in July, slightly higher than the 1.6% increase last month but still significantly lower than the 2.9% readings last year. Excluding food and energy, core CPI actually increased 2.2% over the last year, which the highest reading in six months. While this measure of inflation is trending close to the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed’s preferred inflation tracker (PCE Index) is running close to 1.4%.  Moral of the story: These inflation levels still provide the Fed with an option to further cut rates in 2019 if they perceive the economic conditions warrant such action – the market is actually expecting…

Slowed swiping  Consumer borrowing in June expanded at the slowest pace in three months, driven by contracting credit card debt. Revolving credit (like credit cards) fell by 0.1% for the month, after growing 8.4% and 7.6% the two months prior. Non-revolving credit (like auto and student loans) tend to be less volatile and increased at a steady rate by 5.8%.  Moral of the story: Despite the weakness in June, consumer credit for the second quarter expanded by 4.9%, which was 0.6% higher than the expansion we saw in the first quarter. While I like to see consumer debt decline on a personal level, it means consumers are spending less. The…

It happened, guys As anticipated, the FOMC cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008. However, the 0.25% cut was categorized by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as a “mid-cycle adjustment” as opposed to the start of a larger quantitative easing campaign. While markets were initially excited for this rate cut, this signaling from Powell was not what the doves were anticipating and sent stocks tumbling.  Moral of the story: At the end of the day, the Fed will monitor the economy and act as needed to maintain a strong labor market and inflation near 2% (which continued to fall in June). The biggest wildcard is…